Fuling mustard (002507): Channel construction and adjustment continue to promote the effect has gradually appeared
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income in the first three quarters16.
4.0 billion, an annual increase of 3.
83%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.
1.8 billion, down by 0 every year.
99%, EPS is 0.
Achieved revenue in the third quarter alone 5.
1.8 billion, a ten-year growth of 7.
64%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.
3.0 billion, down 6 previously.
78%, deducting non-net profit1.
9.9 billion, an annual increase of 1.
We forecast a 5% decline in net profit in the performance forecast, and the third quarter results were basically in line with expectations.
Investment rating and estimation: Considering that the company’s main work this year is channel sinking and adjustment, although the actual situation has improved, but the statement of the statement is expected to lag behind, we lowered the revenue forecast for 2019-21 to 19.
6.24 billion (previous 20).
600 million), with annual growth of 3%, 10%, and 11%, respectively, reducing the net profit forecast for mothers in 2019-21 to 6.
3.2 billion (previous 7).
700 million), with annual growth of 0.
6%, the corresponding EPS is 0.
05 yuan (last time 0.
23 yuan), the latest closing price corresponding to 19-21 PE is 27, 25, 22x.
The company is still making channel adjustments, and it takes time to fully demonstrate the effects. It is recommended to keep track.
In the long run, as a leader in industry segmentation, the company has outstanding advantages with segmented brands and channels, with obvious common advantages and dominant competitive patterns. At the same time, it focuses on the main business of pickled vegetables and condiments, which is incentivized.The category development continued to develop, maintaining the BUY rating.
Income continued to adjust and the effects of sinking and inventory levels gradually improved.
Revenue growth in the third quarter alone was 7.
64%, an increase of 2 in the first half.
11%, growth accelerated.
However, the cash received for the sale of goods in the third quarter fell by 1 each year.
26%, 19Q3 advance receipts1.
300 million ring increased by 0 compared to Q2.
200 million, 18Q3 advance receipts1.
8.5 billion chain increased by 0.
500 million, indicating that there is still some pressure on channel payment.
Considering the 10% price increase of some of the main products in October last year, it is expected that the sales growth in the single quarter will not contribute much.
After the company successively raised prices in 2017, it adopted the “flooding flood” strategy in the first half of 2018 to compete for market share. In the second half of last year, it entered the process of destocking.
At the same time, through the refinement and sinking of the channel organizational structure this year, the third- and fourth-tier markets have been further penetrated, and the sales model has been promoted by past distributors to implement excessive implementation by manufacturers.
It is expected that the overall main product inventory has replaced a reasonable level for more than a month, the product structure continues to improve, team building and dealer running-in after the sinking of the channel are progressing smoothly. It is expected that the channel foundation will continue to be solidified in the fourth quarter, and revenue is expected to improve in the first quarter of next year.
Increased channel construction efforts will affect short-term profitability.
As the company’s external demand environment weakens this year, the company’s channel inventory adjustment and refinement construction will be a big year for expenses.
The sales expenses in the first three quarters increased by 21% each year, and the sales expense ratio was 18.
西安夜网74% increase by 2.
69pct, the sales expenses in the third and third quarters increased by 86% each year, and the sales expense ratio was 13.
69% increase by 5.
The increase in expenses mainly comes from the personnel and office expenses brought by the channel construction, the construction of ground outlets, and the increase in dealer support. It is expected that the company will still adhere to a certain level of expenditure to consolidate the supplementary channels. After entering the new market and gradually cultivating it, the expense ratioWill be optimized.
In the third quarter, the management expense ratio and financial expense ratio reached 3 respectively.
11% (comparable caliber after reducing R & D expenses) and -0.
15%, 0 changes in ten years.
14 points and -0.
04pct is relatively stable.佛山桑拿网
Due to the decrease in government subsidies, non-operating income decreased by approximately 27.5 million compared with the same period last year.
Gross profit margin increased by 60% in the third quarter.
69pct, mainly from the structural optimization and price increase effect last year.
Single third quarter net profit 39.
18%, a decline of 6 per year.
06pct, the increase in selling expenses is preliminary.
Catalysts for highest performance: accelerated channel expansion, core assumptions of product price increase risks: channel expansion effect is expected gradually, food safety incidents